What we can take away from today is that the U.S. economy has entered the trade war on strong footing,
Companies large and small have put warnings on their forward projections of earnings going forward. That’s companies telling us, ‘We don’t know. We are uncertain. And we expect [earnings] are going to fall,
Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,
People wanted to front-load and bring in more material before the tariff hike,
Any potential cuts to programme like Medicaid could threaten those jobs in the future,
The administration has been cutting funding for institutions, like in higher education, in research institutions. They’ve been cutting grants that have gone out for grants for particular communities, for mental health services for children,
Those are job-sustaining investments,
Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,
I want to be very nice and respectful to the Fed,
I have a Fed person who is not really doing a good job,
The question now is how long the labor market can withstand rising uncertainty across the economy,
If the U.S. wants to talk, it should show sincerity to talk,
When I spoke with Fetterman in April and shared those concerns, he denied anything was amiss. He told me that he felt like the ‘best version’ of himself and later texted that the staff turnover at his office was typical of Washington. ‘Why is this a story?’ he asked.”
April's payroll report provides a snapshot of labor demand in the run-up to the April 2 tariff announcements, rather than an early assessment of their impact,
Nearly three-quarters of employees are paid either biweekly, semimonthly or monthly, so they would still count on April payrolls even if employers moved quickly to cut jobs after the April 2 tariff announcements,
This is the second month in a row where the
Another stronger-than-expected jobs report is encouraging, although definitely not top of mind considering the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and global trade,
Wages are continuing to rise and labor force participation is increasing,
The data for this release was collected during the week following Liberation Day, meaning it would be too soon to expect substantial fallout to emerge just as higher tariffs were being implemented,
In the here and now, solid labor market data provides the Fed with scope for patience,