In terms of the de-escalation, the deal is not that surprising. Both sides had signalled that they were open to a deal in the lead-up to the talks. And some recent economic data indicated that tariffs had reached a level that would lead to economic pain for both parties,
It signals that decoupling between the US and China is off the table. It suggests a return to reliance on two-way trade rather than a decoupling or a trade embargo,
This is better than I expected. I thought tariffs would be cut to somewhere around 50 per cent.”
There is no clarity on de minimis at all,
Obviously, this is very positive news for economies in both countries and for the global economy, and makes investors much less concerned about the damage to global supply chains in the short term,
Looking ahead, the full scope of the deal remains unclear. Talks over the final version will likely take a few months at least. And the process will depend substantially on the nature of the US demands,
I suspect this will turn out like the UK deal, a climbdown..but to a worse endpoint than the markets expected in February,
The reality is that China’s trade barriers, including non-tariff barriers, are low relative to many other countries in the developed world, including many in Europe and East Asia,
There are many Republicans - and not just those who are avid supporters of President Trump - for whom the strength of the Special Relationship has been somewhat diluted by Sir Keir Starmer’s overtures to China,
Donald Trump didn’t reject Lord Mandelson’s bid to become UK ambassador to Washington, despite his China connections and the warnings from the security agencies,
Last week’s deal shows that Trump is treating the UK in a special way,
The consensus from both delegations this weekend is that neither side wants a decoupling,
The new status quo isn’t too far from our baseline assumption for tariffs [of] 10pc for most countries [and] 60pc for China, which underpins our view that the US economy will avoid recession,
With US GDP growth likely to hold up while tariffs push up core inflation to around 4pc, we continue to judge that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year,
More de-escalation and progress on deals within the 90-day relief period are helping markets to buy time on the recession endgame,
It does not include any commitments by China on exchange rate policy or the bilateral trade imbalance, although these will presumably be topics for discussion over the next three months.”
This move... is in the interest of the two countries and the common interest of the world,
I think we leave with a very good mechanism to avoid the unfortunate escalations,
Both sides showed a great respect,
Those remain unchanged for now,