If Ukraine can deny Russia from reaching the borders of Donetsk between now and Christmas, and Kyiv’s international partners are diligent in degrading Russia’s economy, Moscow will face hard choices about the costs it is prepared to incur for continuing the war,
If it is more of the same, ... Russia can expect decisive action from the United States Senate.”
There’s a difference between pushing the Ukrainians back five to 10 kilometers at a time at high cost versus having the assembled manpower and armor behind that to exploit a breakthrough and to occupy and push through all of those obstacles, even though the Ukrainians are having issues,
The Russians can continue fighting, but … the force will become more and more de-mechanized over time, and that does put a timeline on how long they can sustain the current way they operate,
Russia is actually culminating in its ability to conduct an offensive,
The European Union is about to impose additional sanctions,
With every such strike, the world sees more clearly that it is Moscow that’s prolonging this war,
Russia is very gradually taking bits of territory still, but at an unsustainably high cost,
Russia is not able to take any ground, and this is the situation pretty much since the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive” in 2023
I think they overestimate the current success of Russia,
Putin believes that time is on his side, and Ukraine is bleeding faster than Russia,
He has gut instincts, those instincts are OK, they are not always wrong, he zigzags, and in the case of Ukraine he is most governed by the tactics he needs to get a ceasefire,
Congress cannot force Trump to do anything, but they can be in a position to say we can pass legislation on sanctions to strengthen Trump’s position. The Republicans on the Hill are not portraying this as an alternative to Trump but saying ‘this is how we support his strategy’.”
Russia wants what they do not currently have and are not entitled to, and Ukraine wants what they cannot regain militarily. And that’s been the crux of the challenge.”
The words ‘Trump’ and ‘orderly’ in the same sentence do not inspire confidence.”
Trump’s worldview is not far from what we saw in the 19th-century concert of powers – a big power era sometimes of competition and sometimes cooperation. We have to convince the US administration that free trade and common rules are better than transactional deals, and we show we are serious about defence in Europe and that we are security providers and not security consumers.”
Once again, this was a European matter and it should have remained a European matter.” ... This is not our war.”
Nato decisions on capabilities will be made without knowing the future US force posture in Europe,
It can be a managed process or chaotic and fractious,
If you start threatening sanctions, the Russians will stop talking.”