Incoming data are neither good nor bad enough to force the FOMC to reveal its intentions,
It is not unusual for hard data to lag significantly in event-driven downturns ... It is notable that the soft data ... have already fallen more than in the typical event-driven recession,
We've been in an environment ... that has generated a large amount of uncertainty, and so far it hasn't diminished."
The Fed is caught in this wait-and-see approach, and the next round of data should swing them one way or the other, whether it’s to cut rates and support the economy or stay on hold to guard against additional inflation,
To me, this is a good moment for us to take our time and make sure we’re moving in the right direction,
I’m willing to look through whatever tariff price effects there are,
Once we get to early June, the economic data should give much greater insight on the impact of tariffs,
You’ve seen that this is not a Fed that’s afraid of moving quickly if we need to move quickly,